3.30.2011

Future Mega Earthquakes

People every where are watching with horror what’s happening in Japan. But there are some parts of the world that know they re going to be hit someday.

California , US
Experts says ‘several of the faults in this region are overdue for major quakes. The last forecasts say there’s a 99.7 per cent chance of a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in Southern California in the next 30 years’.If it were to be the San Andreas fault, the earthquake could be much larger.The consensus of the scientific community on forecasting California earthquakes allows for meaningful comparisons of earthquake probabilities in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, as well as comparisons among several large faults.
The probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years striking the greater Los Angeles area is 67%, and in the San Francisco Bay Area it is 63%, similar to previous Bay Area estimates. For the entire California region, the fault with the highest probability of generating at least one magnitude 6.7 quake or larger is the southern San Andreas (59% in the next 30 years). A Tsunami would have tremendous implications.

Lisbon, Portugal , EU
In November 1755 a major earth quake hit this city, the Tsunamis came and cause tremendous devastation.
This earthquake occurred on All Saint’s Day while many of the 250,000 inhabitants of Lisbon were in Church, it was 1st November. Stone buildings swayed violently and then collapsed on the population. Many who sought safety on the river front were drowned by a large tsunami. 66000 people perished. Fire ravaged the city. One quarter of Lisbon’s population perished. This earthquake had a profound effect on the intellectual outlook of Europe.
A future earthquake of the same magnitude , is expected, however, as always the only question is when. According to some scientist is past due.





Tehran, Iran
All of Iran lies within a major earthquake zone, and the country has suffered terrible temblors before — most recently in 2003, when a 6.8-magnitude quake leveled the ancient city of Bam and killed more than 30,000 people. But a similar quake in the congested capital of Tehran — where more than 7 million people live — would be a shattering catastrophe. Unlike building codes in other endangered cities such as San Francisco and Tokyo, Tehran’s are relatively lax, and many residents live in the sort of unreinforced-concrete houses that turn into death traps in the event of a strong quake. The Iranian Health Ministry once estimated that a 7-magnitude quake would destroy 90% of the city’s hospitals. Tehran is so threatened that there has been periodic talk about moving the capital.

Indonesia
It’s called the Ring of Fire, a semicircle of violently shifting plates and volcanoes that runs along the edges of the Pacific Ocean, from New Zealand to Chile. The most seismically active region on the planet, the Ring of Fire has triggered countless quakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis, including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that killed 230,000 people, mostly in Southeast Asia. That tsunami was set off by a 9.3-magnitude quake near the northern coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, a region that has been hit repeatedly by massive temblors. Sadly seismologists expect more to come in the future.

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